Instant Reaction: Interest Rates, July 26, 2023

No surprises regarding the latest interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The impact on the mortgage rate appears to be muted. The Fed, unfortunately, is still using language based on the lagging indicators of "robust" jobs and "elevated" inflation. The Fed funds rate is now 2 percentage points higher than inflation, a rare and very tight monetary policy condition.

The unemployment rate is 3.6% compared to 3.4% a few months ago. Inflation is much calmer at 3% compared to 9% last summer. All the while, because of higher interest rates, home sales have fallen, businesses are cutting back on investments, and community banks are under stress.